The different pathologies might be: small ones will collectively try lots of strange or novel ideas but will fail by running underpowered poorly-done experiments (for lack of funding & expertise) which convince no one, suffer from small-study biases, and merely pollute the literature, giving meta-analysts migraines. Gamify self reflection by keeping a running streak using a Google Doc or an app like Streaks. ): you will not be the next Bill Gates, because Bill Gates was not the first and only Bill Gates, he was, pace Stiglers Law, the last Bill Gates13; many people made huge fortunes off OSes, both before and after Gatesyou may have forgotten Wang, but hopefully you remember Steve Jobs (before, Mac) and Steve Jobs (after, NeXT). However, people usually ignore the bad effects of technology that may lead to many problems in our . For example, even if online pizza delivery has failed every time its tried, it still seems like a good idea that people will want to order pizza online via their smartphones, so one could try to do a pizza startup 2.5 years later, then 5 years later, then 10 years, then 20 years, or perhaps every time computer costs drop an order of magnitude, or perhaps every time the relevant market doubles in size? Early PC history is rife with examples of the prescient failing. Well start off renting people a doomed format in a way inferior to our established competitor Blockbuster (which will choose to commit suicide by ignoring both mail order & Internet all the way until bankruptcy in 2010)8; this will (somehow) let us pivot to streaming, where we will license all our content from our worst enemies, who will destroy us the instant we are too successful & already intend to run streaming services of their ownbut thats OK because well just convince Wall Street to wait decades while giving us hundreds of billions of dollars to replace Hollywood by making thousands of film & TV series ourselves (despite the fact that weve never done anything like that before and there is no reason to think we would be any better at it than they are)., Or Github: Well offer code hosting services like that of SourceForge or Google Code which requires developers to use one of the most user-hostile DVCSes, only to FLOSS developers who are notorious cheapskates, and charge them a few bucks for a private version., SpaceX: Orbital Sciences Corporation has a multi-decade headstart but are fat and lazy; well catch up by buying some spare Russian rockets while we invent our own futuristic reusable ones. ISSN: 1944-978X (Online)ISSN: 0149-2136 (Print). Youve seen the curves Gordon Moore discovered. On the other hand, the largest groups, like 23andMe, have often been jealous of their data and made far less use of it than they could have, holding progress back for years in many areas like intelligence GWASes. We can think of the prototypes as 23 different attempts to describe the inevitable generic lightbulb. Smartphones are an even bigger example of this. Timing Technology: Lessons From The Media Lab Technological developments can be foreseen but the knowledge is largely useless because startups are inherently risky and require optimal timing. This will work well for traditional interviews and those stations at the MMI which ask more traditional interview questions. Dude, dont you remember CueCat at all? Similarly, the benefit of taking Moores law seriously is that one can plan ahead to take advantage of it24 even if one doesnt know exactly when, if ever, it will happen. Further, 95% of the energy for transportation comes from oil. View 2 SanDisk Extreme Portab. BOYDEN: One way to think of it is that, if a scientific topic is really popular and everybodys doing it, then I dont need to be part of that. You can see the smartphones come up again and again in TML, as the visionaries realize how transformative a mobile pocket-sized computer would be. Were not sure what. Later: oh, apparently eBay sellers like us so much theyre making their own promotional materials? Whatever the evidence, the fundamental question VCs are trying to answer is: Why back this founder against this problem set versus waiting to see who else may come along with a better organic understanding of the problem? It is surprising that some have never tried or attempted to keep off technology even for a day. His work modifies our conception of the past, as it will modify the future. In this correlation, the identity or plurality of men doesnt matter. Machine learning, deep learning, is one of the hot topics of our time, but a lot of the math was worked out decades agobackpropagation, for example, in the 1980s and 1990s. Modern genomics strikes me as a bit like this. I had thought, at first, that he was as unique as the phoenix of rhetorical praise; after spending a little time with him, I felt I could recognize his voice, or his habits, in the texts of various literatures and various agesIf I am not mistaken, the heterogeneous pieces I have listed resemble Kafka; if I am not mistaken, not all of them resemble each other. If you look at bicycles, there were thousands of weird models built and tried before they found the one that really worked. For if they were obviously good ideas, they would never produce venture returns. This leaves good VCs to invest in good ideas that look like bad ideashidden gems that probably take a slightly delusional or unconventional founder to pursue. From 1980 to 1983, she was an assistant professor at the U. of AlaskaFairbanks, where she became Petroleum Engineering Dept. You dont have to be bipolar to be an entrepreneur, but it might help. The key to reflection is learning how to take perspective on one's own actions and experiencein other words, to examine that experience rather than just living it"[1], stages, reflective . (The best I can think of would be to sell any Murdoch stock you owned when you heard they were buying MySpace, but offhand Im not sure that Murdoch didnt just stagnate rather than drop as MySpace increasingly turned out to be a writeoff.) reflection-in-action. Spotting a promising trend and a winning investment are two different things. A major benefit of R&D, then, is in laying fallow until the ripe time when they can be immediately exploited in previously-unpredictable ways; applied R&D or VC strategies should focus on maintaining diversity of investments, while continuing to flexibly revisit previous failures which forecasts indicate may have reached ripe time. Only then could the new technology claim to have drawn level with Babbages design ideas of a hundred years earlier. The tempting deals are the bad ideas that look like good ideas, yet they ultimately contain some hidden flaw that reveals their true badness. What if instead of threatening to sue them, we tried working with them?, Venmo: TextPayMe worked out well, right?, Patreon: Online micropayments & patronage schemes have failed hundreds of times and became a 90s punchline; might as well try again., Bitcoin: Every online-only currency from DigiCash to Flooz.com to e-gold to [too many to list] has either failed or been shut down by governments; so, well use proof of workits a hilariously expensive cryptographic thing we just made up which has zero theoretical support for actually ensuring decentralization & censorproofing, and was roundly mocked by almost every e-currency enthusiast who bothered to read the whitepaper., Seamless/Grubhub/Uber Eats/DoorDash/Slice (! Through consolidation and failure, 3 emerged on top, 2 of which went bankrupt. Sunday Reflection: The Blessing of God's Timing. On phones! You cant possibly get a good technology going without an enormous number of failures. Was the technological power just not sufficient 30 years ago?, [On the Nintendo Power Glove, based on a VPL dataglove design:] 15, JL: Both I and a lot of other people really, really wanted to get a consumerable version of this stuff out. Without the communication technologies in which the modern society relies heavily upon, the life as we all know it would cease to exist. A successful company rewrites history and its precursors14; history must be lived forward, progressing to an obscure destination, but we always recall it backwards as progressing towards the clarity of the present. Christine Ehlig-Economides received a BA degree from Rice U. in math-science, an MS degree from the U. of Kansas in chemical engineering, and a PhD degree from Stanford U. in petroleum engineering. Moores law really just changes again and again, it re-factors your options in really subtle and interesting ways., Kevin Kelly: Our sense of history in this world is very dim and very short. Issues like component cost were not something that could be solved by a VR research project, no matter how ambitious. Why are success and failure so intertwined in the tech industry? Timing, we believe, is an art. We can draw lines on a graph but we dont know the constraints. A more practical approach is to embrace uncertainty, taking a reinforcement learning perspective. If you concentrate you might be able to identify where some of the late reflections come from. Reverse salients are areas of research and development that are lagging in some obvious way behind the general line of advance. Conclusion. I read it constantly thinking yes, yes, you were rightfor all the good it did you!, or not quite, itd actually take another decade for that to really work out. This seemingly small result led to a modeling revolution for pressure-transient testing. I remain confident of this: I will see the goodness of the Lord in the land of the living. : Theoretical Analysis of Pressure Phenomena Associated With the Wireline Formation Tester,. They said, Current VR gear is low field of view, high lag, too expensive, too heavy, cant be driven properly from consumer-grade computers, or even professional-grade computers. It turned out that I wasnt the first person to realize these problems. Yet the principle of unripe time, distilled by F. M. Cornford [15] more than half a century ago from the changeless stream of Cambridge academic life, has provided the epitaph of more than one premature technology. In other words, we wanted them to be momentary (i.e. VCs will literally escape through the bathroom to avoid talking to us., Stripe: Banks & online payment processors like PayPal are heavily-regulated inefficient monopolies which really suck; well make friends with some banks and run a payment processor which doesnt suck. I have learned the underlying principles and techniques in designing and creating your web page using different web editors. Again, self reflection is not about building your "best life", it's about figuring out what type of person you want to become. . This last fact is what is most significant. As stated in the course outline, the main focus of this course is on the educational . Reflection-in-action "Thinking about what you are doing, while you are doing it." (Schn, 1983) Reflection-in-action happens in what Schn (1983) describes as 'the midst of activity' - in coaching terms this is likely to be during a coaching session or game. This overall problem falls under the reinforcement learning paradigm, and successful approaches are analogous to Thompson sampling/posterior sampling: even an informed strategy cant reliably beat random exploration which gradually shifts towards successful areas while continuing to take occasional long shots. Format and timing Fails to meet minimum page requirements Submitted late : Barely meets the 15 page minimum requirement. 64), The changing structure of American innovation: Some cautionary remarks for economic growth, deterministic schedule posterior sampling reinforcement learning (DS-PRL), Facebook: the world needs yet another MySpace or Friendster [or. It is not like the horse or the bull, the wolf or the deer. However, when I arrived back in Memphis on Monday morning, much to my surprise, the bank balance stood at nearly $135,272.2$32,000.01973. It will only do one thing well, and youll have to move all of your content to use it. In recent times, corporate research has diminished, and that may be a bad thing: The changing structure of American innovation: Some cautionary remarks for economic growth, Arora et al 2020., One might appeal to the Kelly criterion as a guide to how much individuals should wager on experiments, since the Kelly criterion gives optimal growth of wealth over the long-term while avoiding gamblers ruin, but given the extremely small number of wagers an individual engages in, with a highly finite horizon, the Kelly criterions assumptions are far from satisfied, and the true optimal strategy can be radically different from a naive Kelly criterion; I explore this difference more in The Kelly Coin-flipping Game, which is motivated by stock-market investing., Thompson sampling, incidentally, has been rediscovered, PSRL (posterior sampling, see also Ghavamzadeh et al 2016) generalizes Thompson sampling to more complex problems, MDPs or POMDPs in general, by for each iteration, assuming an entire collection or distribution of possible environments which are more complex than a single-step bandit, picking an environment at random based on its probability of being the real environment, finding the optimal actions for that one, and then acting on that solution; this does the same thing in smoothly balancing exploration with exploitation. Dj vu, because what was described in TML on every other page is recognizably ordinary life in the 1990s and 2000s, never mind the 2010s, from the spread of broadband to the eventual impact of smartphones. A predictable waste of money, perhaps, but thats how the incentives work out. In RLs multi-armed bandit setting, each turn one has a set of arms or options with unknown payoffs and one wants to maximize the total long-term reward. She has since been appointed to the Albert B. Stevens Endowed Chair in Petroleum Engineering at Texas A&M U. Ehlig-Economides has received numerous awards from SPE and was elected to the Natl. But this animal does not figure among the domestic animals, it is not easy to find, it does not lend itself to any classification. And the Media Lab wasnt the only one, General Magic (1989), had an almost identical vision of a networked future powered by small touchscreen devices. From Frock2006, Changing How the World Does Business: Fedexs Incredible Journey to Success, in 1973: On several occasions, we came within an inch of failure, because of dwindling financial resources, regulatory roadblocks, or unforeseen events like the Arab oil embargo. In2012, I watched impressed as my aunt used the iPhone application FaceTime to video chat with her daughter half a continent away. There are many ways technology can help teachers see themselves and their practice more clearly. (And what about Douglas Engelbart, or Alan Kay/Xerox PARC, who explicitly aimed to skate towards where the puck would be?) Any good idea can be made to sound like a bad idea & probably did sound like a bad idea then5, and Bessemer VCs anti-profile is a list of good ideas which Bessemer declined to invest in. The aeroplane industry cannot now redeem Daedalus nor can the computer industry recover the money spent by the British Admiralty more than a hundred years ago in support of Charles Babbage and his calculating machine. Technological developments can be foreseen but the knowledge is largely useless because startups are inherently risky and require optimal timing. As a research manager with training and experience in pharmaceutical chemistry, a lively interest in medicine, and rapport with the medical community, Hrlein was well positioned to survey the field where chemistry and medicine joined battle against disease. Start small. After that, an explosion of new models presented on log-log coordinates appeared in the mushrooming well-test literature. If you are copying these guys, you arent learning from them.. Will the founder be able to explain her vision in a way that causes others to want to join her on this mission? The motivation to take something into the real world, which necessarily requires attacking the reverse salients, may be part of why corporate & academic research are both necessary; too little of either creates a bottleneck. Why is their knowledge so useless? It connects users to International Business Machines (IBM), UNIX, Linux, Open Virtual Memory System (OpenVMS), and Hewlett Packard (HP) applications from their desktops. It wont have cut and paste. Critical problems are the research questions, cast in terms of the concrete particulars of currently available knowledge and technique and of specific exemplars or models (eg. The UK Biobank has produced an amazing amount of research for a large group, but is the exception that proves the rule: their openness to researchers is (sadly) extraordinarily unusual. Stehfest, H.: Numerical Inversion of Laplace Transforms,, Wagner, P.B., Economides, M.J., and Ehlig-Economides, C.A. Maybe some other discovery from left field has changed how we think about things. Secrets of Sand Hill Road: Venture Capital and How to Get It, by Scott Kupor 2019 (a16z), excerpts, In a strange way, sometimes familiarity can breed contemptand conversely, the distance from the problem that comes from having a completely different professional background might actually make one a better founder. This was oft-cited as an example of how technoweenies failed to understand that people didnt really want videophones at allwho wants to put on makeup before making a call?, people offered as an explanation, in all seriousnessbut really, it looks like the videophones back then simply werent good enough. Indeed, this would have around the Japanese boondoggle the Fifth Generation Project (note that despite Japans reputed prowess at robotics, it is not Japans robots who went into Fukushima / flying around the Middle East / revolutionizing agriculture and construction). 2). What if you believed the story they were trying to tell us: that each year, as sure as winter follows summer, and day follows night, computers would get half again better, and half again smaller, and half again cheaper, year after year, and that in 5 decades they would be 30 million times more powerful than they were then, and cheap. within the environment where learning is taking place). Or take niche visionary technologies: if cryonics was correct in principal, yet turned out to be worthless for everyone doing it before 2030 (because the wrong perfusion techniques or cryopreservatives were used and some critical bit of biology was not vitrified) while practical post-2030 say, it would simply be yet another technology where visionaries were ultimately right despite all nay-saying and skepticism from normals but nevertheless wrong in a practical sense because they jumped on it too early, and so they wasted their money. Indeed, its inherent in really transformative ideas that they look like bad ideasGoogle, Apple, Facebook and Amazon all did, sometimes several times over. Reflection of light occurs when waves hit a surface that, instead of absorbing radiation, bounce the waves away from the surface. The course The ICT course was not really difficult, as I had a very good knowledge about the different types of technologies that were presented, but the idea of adapting them to my classroom got me thinking. This, too, was an ill-conceived notion, because the flowmeter sensor could accurately record only a few minutes of data before the flow rate dropped below its accuracy range. COWEN: Two last questions. He had to intervene where necessary to minimize friction between chemists and medical researchers, an especially important task for chemotherapy as a composite entity. The flowmeter did have a place in transient testing, though, but during drawdown, not buildup. How hard could it be? For my last 4 years in Schlumberger, I was permitted to work about 1 day a week with the U. of Houston, where I was appointed Director of the Petroleum Engineering Program. In essence, this means that usually the time isn't right for most innovations. A typical reflection paper is between 300 and 700 words long. Suppose you somehow knew in 2000 that in 2010, the founder of the most successful social network will be worth at least $10b; this is a falsifiable belief at odds with all conventional wisdom and about a tech that blindsided everyone. Absolutely, Amazon (which has rarely turned a profit and has sucked up far more investment than Pets.com ever did, a mere ~$484.8$300.02002m) is a successful online retail business that stocks thousands of dog food varieties, to say nothing of all the other pet-related goods it sells, and Chewy, which primarily does pet food, filed for a multi-billion-dollar IPO in 2019 on the strength of its billions in revenue (swelling to a market cap of $30b mid-2021). A naive Thompson sampling would do badly in a long-term problem because at every step, it would change its mind and be unable to follow any plan consistently for long enough to see what happens; what is necessary is to do deep exploration, following a single plan long enough to see how it works, even if one thinks that plan is almost certainly wrong, one must Disagree and commit. Yet, it took until the mid-00s for the promise of smartphones to materialize overnight, as it were, a success which went primarily to latecomers Apple and Google, cutting out the previously highly-successful Nokia, never mind visionaries like General Magic. Although Babbage was one of Britains great innovative geniuses, support of his work was wasted money in terms of tangible return on investment. The solution to this apparent dilemma starts with the recognition that a business enterprise's value depends on the level and rate of growth of its cash flow. I told him he was right, but that pressure data were quite noisy, that the analytical solutions were differentiable, but surely not real, data. Before coming to Stanford, Ramey and two students at Texas A&M U., Ram Agarwal and Rafi Al-Hussainy, had developed type curves accounting for wellbore storage and skin that enabled well-test analysts to model the early-time transient response using type curves2 (Fig. However, they also brought us cyber warfare, hackers, identity theft, cyber stalking, and a host of other bad things. One of the most basic reasons to begin self-reflection in your daily routine is that it can assist you in making sense of daily events. Is there a sustainable development reason to reduce our consumption? And in 2019, with 2012 a distant memory, well, one could say something similar, just with larger numbers. So many models could be easily derived when the governing equations were transformed into Laplace space. When a participant crosses the finish line, the RFID tag is read by an RFID reader which transmits the tag's ID to the timing software. but less And even when there are stocks available to buy, you only benefit based on the specificslike one of the existing stocks being a winner, rather than all the stocks being eaten by some new startup. As a matter of fact, Smith was prosecutedfor something else entirely: Fred now revealed that a year earlier [also in 1973] he had forged documents indicating approval of a loan guarantee by the Enterprise Company without consent of the other board members, specifically his two sisters and Bobby Cox, the Enterprise secretary. The electric incandescent lightbulb was invented, reinvented, coinvented, or first invented dozens of times. Use Answer Strategies. But it was left to Eckert and Mauchly [16] several years later to rediscover and implement the conceptions of stored programs and conditional jumps, which had already been present in Babbages analytical engine [17]. Is this even nonpublic knowledge at all? Bourdet showed me the pressure and pressure-derivative type curves he had developed8 (Fig. Total page count over 20. It's frustrating to desire somethinga solution, position, experience, relationship, or possessionbut sense the Lord saying "no" or "not now.". At that time, my technical interest was in layered reservoir testing.12 In layered reservoir tests, the combination of pressure and flow rates measured at different levels in the well in response to changes in the surface flow rate permit characterization of commingled zones on a zone-by-zone basis. The difficulty is in coping with failure: even good options may fail many times in a row, and bad options may succeed, so options cannot simply be ruled out after a failure or two, and if one is too hasty to write an option off, one may take a long time to realize that, losing out for many turns. Put simply, it's not the time lead or the technology; it's what a firm does with its time lead and . This is true but I would say it reverses the order (N to N+1? It is a time for Muslims to deepen their connection to God and to practice compassion and kindness towards others. Scott et al 2019, McKenzie&Sansone2019). This trend persists when median score is included (Model 7 in Table 3). Clearly doomed to failure when they refused Facebooks $3.9$3.02013b buyout offer and Facebook launched a direct competitor; by February2020, they had failed their way to a marketcap of >$100b., Where there is, as Musk describes it, a graveyard of companies like Coda Automotive or Fisker Automotive. He showed me that the families of type curves he was generating were hardly distinguishable as pressure change on log-log coordinates, but they showed considerable character when graphed as a pressure derivative. The fact is that each writer creates his precursors. End of preview. If the software doesnt work out, I guess well do something else. Businesses wont be able to get enough of it; employees will love to hate it., English Wikipedia: Well compete with Microsoft Encarta, the Encyclopedia Britannica, H2G2, Everything2, Interpedia, The Distributed Encyclopedia Project (TDEP), TheInfo, & GNUs GNE by letting literally anyone edit some draft articles for Nupedia.9, Zoom: Skype has a literally 15-year headstart, but we can do so much better, and maybe something will make everyone suddenly want to video-conference after all this time avoiding it as much as possible?. o Activity Report: Timing your Technology. stfu and watch for those who watching rn alam ko na pinagagawa din kayo ng sir/mam nyo nga ganito hahahahah The flow rate showed a very clear oscillation, and there was a concern that the meter had malfunctioned. The first Kafka of Betrachtung is less a precursor of the Kafka of the gloomy myths and terrifying institutions than is Browning or Lord Dunsany. And pity, because the sad thing is noting how few future millionaires or billionaires grace the page of TMLone quickly realizes that yes, person X was 100% right about Y happening even when everyone thought it insane, except that X was just a bit off, by a few years, and either jumped the gun or was too late, and so some other Z who doesnt even appear in TML was the person who wound up taking all the spoils. Be still. In their book Edisons Electric Light: Biography of an Invention, Robert Friedel, Paul Israel, and Bernard Finn list 23 inventors of incandescent bulbs prior to Edison. I would say it reverses the order ( N to N+1 typical paper... Graph but we dont know the constraints would say it reverses the order ( N to N+1 perhaps... Similar, just with larger numbers issues like component cost were not something that could be solved by VR. She was an assistant professor at the U. of AlaskaFairbanks, where became! 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